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Stronger, Wetter, Slower: How Hurricanes Will Change

Experts show how 22 recent hurricanes would be different if they formed near the end of this century

If the planet’s climate keeps warming at current rates, by the end of this century Atlantic hurricane rainfall will be 24 percent higher than today. Maximum winds will be 6 percent stronger and the storms will move 9 percent slower, creating significantly more damage. Those are the findings from an international team of experts who modeled 22 hurricanes that hit between 2002 and 2013 and would take a similar track under the warmer conditions. Overall, the number of strong hurricanes occurring in any year would increase.


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Credit: Amanda Montañez; Source: “Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Year Convection-Permitting Pseudo-Global Warming Simulation,” by Ethan D. Gutmann et al., in Journal of Climate, Vol. 31; May 1, 2018

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at Scientific American for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: Scientific American Mind and Scientific American Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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